ARE YOU READY FOR SOME FOOTBALL?

I've taken a couple of weeks off to digest college and pro football training camps.  I've read at nauseam the analysts take on who's going to win the National Championship and the Super Bowl.   More often than not, I wonder what they're smoking.  Maybe that's why fans are so off kilter with realistic expectations for their teams.  Because it sure seems like they've gotten their share of secondhand smoke.    

Singing to the high heavens (courtesy of Gameday Gallery}

It's common place to be thrilled about the coming football season. In college, if your team returns a number of great players and hit on some new recruits, you're no doubt excited.   Professionally, if your team made some trades, added a couple of nice draft picks or grabbed a free agent or two you should be pumped.  But tap the brakes of reality.  Training camp is essentially that.  Some rise to the surface, but more often than not, camp excitables are just that.  Many are never heard from again. 

How many of the 136 eligible Division 1 teams and how many of the 32 professional ballclubs are realistically all in on a run for the title?  That's where your thinking should start before you go head over heels about your team.  Of the 136 only 12 make it to the college playoffs.  That's a 0.088 chance you have in seeing the promised land.  In professional football your odds a quite a bit better.  Of the 32, 14 make the playoffs, a 43 percent chance.  

Let's tackle the pro's first.  Yes, there might be a 43 percent possibility of reaching post-season play...but those numbers are very, very misleading.  I had an NFL scout tell me a number of years ago, " you'd be surprised of the NFL teams that are truthfully in it for the prize.  If you watch how their front office works, you can easily see if they're in it to win.  The teams that show risk, creativity and spend wisely are usually going to make post-season.  "The others, clearly have no chance".   Why is that?  Is it more important for ownership to keep moving up the potential sale price of their team or truly play for the fan base?  

Let's take the New York Jets for example.  They haven't made the playoffs in 14 years.  That's the longest current drought in the NFL.  The Carolina Panthers and Atlanta Falcons are next with 7.  It would be easy to say that many teams are making the playoffs.  But making and having a serious shot

are two different things.  

   

So, with that being said, here are my projections for the coming NFL season.  In the AFC, I think it's truly time for the Buffalo Bills to make their way to the Super Bowl.  And this time to win it!  Baltimore will be a tough out and so of course will the Kansas City Chiefs.  They always are.  And then maybe Denver or Houston.  Home field advantage might have more of a play into the AFC entrant into the Super Bowl than it ever has.  Then there's the injury bug.  If anyone of those teams loses their star quarterback, they're toast.  None of them has a capable backup. 

In the NFC, things become a little more interesting.  Yes, Philly could repeat, or Washington makes a real run.  If the Commanders don't solve their WR Terry McLaurin contract issue, then they're out.  The North could offer any of the four teams in the division.  Yes, any of the four.  Without question, this is the toughest four team division.  Other than that, Tampa Bay may have an outside chance and the LA Rams, if they get Matthew Stafford healthy, they could be considered a threat.  In the end, I think the Eagles are back in the Super Bowl.  My dark horse is Washington.  But how can you root for a team with a head coach that has his hat on backwards?  That of course would be the Commanders Dan Quinn. I could be mistaken but I believe he is the only head coach in a major sport that wears his hat backwards. Something to me just doesn't look right with that from the leader of your team.  That's just me.  

In college, the new expanded playoffs were to offer some changes as to who could make a run to the National Championship.  I'm thinking not.  There might be an outsider or two that makes the final 12 but only because it's designed that way.  The field will no doubt come down to Texas, Ohio State, Penn State (as much as I hate to say it), LSU, Clemson, Notre Dame or Oregon. Three of those teams spent crazy money in the NIL world.  Texas was first, followed by Texas Tech, Ohio State and Oregon.  

As I said earlier, the teams with the best likelihood to win are those being led by front offices or administration's that aren't looking to compete, they're looking to win.  That's their bottom line and in the end, it will no doubt boost their bottom line, financially.  That's how the game is being played today.  Texas and Oregon in the National Championship.  And the Longhorns reel in the top prize.

ADDED NOTE:

For a year and a half now, I've heard nothing but criticism of the Bears QB Caleb Williams.  Considering the pathetic team around him last year, I believe he showed some nice signs of being a top-rated NFL signal caller.  Now, with new head Coach Ben Johnson at the helm, you're going to see some further growth in his abilities.   And that's why Ben is called, "the QB Whisperer".  Go Bears....