THE FINAL FOUR IS A SERIES OF RE.....WHAT'S?

The four teams that make up this year's NCAA Basketball Final Four are very familiar with each other.  In some respect that knowledge should help those teams and us form an opinion as to who the winners will be to advance to Monday Night's Championship game.  It should.  But it most likely won't.

The first contest on Saturday's docket has Michigan State squaring off with Duke, two teams that met each other early in the 2014-15 season when the Blue Devils pulled off a 81-71 win.

Let's re-look at the November 18th game and some of the numbers:

Duke shot 7-14 from 3 Pt. range (50%)  Spartans were at a shaky 5-20 for 25%
Michigan State out-rebounded the Blue Devils 37-28
Duke turned the ball over 8 times to the Spartans 13
Branden Dawson paced Michigan State with 18 points and Travis Trice 15...Duke was led by Quinn Cook with 19 and the 3 five star recruits, Tyus Jones and Jahlil Okafor with 17 and Justice Winslow with 15.

Based on much of the information just mentioned, it might be wise to conclude a Duke victory.  But I'm not necessarily sold.  Why?  Because it's Michigan State who has a history of playing rock solid in games of significance in March and April.  And Tom Izzo.  I know Duke has the heralded Mike Krzyzewski at the helm but there's something about the little guy from MSU that defies explanation.  Other than the fact that he simply knows how to win at the right time of year.   Coach K has his admirers but there are far more who look at Duke with envy.....and maybe disgust.

The other glaring piece for me is the bench strength of the Spartans.  I think they go deeper with quality.  And just for one other Final Four digestion, it appears Izzo has everyone firmly entrenched in their roles.  He has tremendous depth on the front line and the back court is just dangerous enough in their rotation to keep you off guard.  My prognostication is Michigan State as the first of the two finalists.       

There might be a whole lot of finger pointing in Kentucky-Wisconsin clash

The other match-up is a redo of sorts.  Last year Kentucky outlasted Wisconsin 74-73 in the semi's but don't let that be any indication.....

In fact, ESPN's Jeff Goodman offers this.
 
"The four outstretched arms belonging to Willie Cauley-Stein and Karl-Anthony Towns were nowhere to be found a year ago when the Kentucky Wildcats defeated the Wisconsin Badgers in the semifinals. Cauley-Stein was injured, on the sideline, and Towns was a high school senior preparing to play in the McDonald's All-American game that week.

Freshmen Tyler Ulis, Trey Lyles and Devin Booker were also months away from arriving on the Lexington, Kentucky, campus.  This no rematch". 

Now, while Goodman offers that suggestion, I'll take the other side of the coin with Wisconsin.  The Badgers are a year older, wiser and tougher.  They can match-up with Kentucky in height, are definitely much more stubborn defensively and they have a bevy of people that hoist it from three point range.  Had Notre Dame used the 3-point shot to a bigger extent in their game plan last week...considering they had been a solid all year long, they could have eliminated the Wildcats.  Kentucky was ripe for the taking and the Fighting Irish let them slip away.  Wisconsin won't. 

Last year in the Kentucky contest, Wisconsin center Frank Kaminsky had 8 points and 5 rebounds and Nigel Hayes had just two points and was shut out off on boards.  That will not be the case this season. 

In addition, Badger head coach Bo Ryan has steadily led his team up the ladder and I believe this is the year he takes his program all the way to the title game. I need to also mention Wisconsin guard Traeyon Jackson.  Jackson is just returning from a fractured right leg he suffered early in the Big Ten season.  While not 100%, Jackson's creativity and clutch play could play an integral part in the final outcome.  He can help match-up against the Wildcat guard court....

And then there is the Kentucky head man, John Calipari.  While many marvel at the recruiting wars he wins year after year, his coaching resume doesn't reflect the same success.  This is his seventh trip to the Final Four.  He has won the championship just once, in the 2011-12 season.  One would have to think the bigger the contest the tougher time he finds a way to win.  I'll take the Badgers. 

I'll leave you with some words of wisdom from a former college coach who shared his thoughts on crunch time.  He said, "you miss 100% of the shots you don't take..."

Saturday, we'll find out who's willing to take them and.....make them.

Thanks for reading,

John